The Complex Tapestry of Ethiopia-Somalia Relations: A History Shaped by Conflict and Cooperation
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Ethiopia and Somalia share a history that stretches back millennia, intertwined by geography, trade, and occasional conflict. The Horn of Africa has long been a crossroads of civilizations, with ancient kingdoms like Axum (Ethiopia) and the Sultanate of Adal (Somalia) shaping early regional dynamics.
The Axumite Empire (1st–8th century CE) was a dominant force in the Red Sea trade, while the Adal Sultanate (9th–16th century) emerged as a powerful Islamic state. Their interactions were marked by both commerce and warfare, particularly during the Ethiopian-Adal War (1529–1543), where Imam Ahmed ibn Ibrahim al-Ghazi (known as "Gurey" or "the Left-Handed") led a jihad against the Christian Ethiopian Empire.
The 19th century brought European colonialism, which drastically altered the region’s political landscape.
Unlike most of Africa, Ethiopia resisted colonization, defeating Italy at the Battle of Adwa (1896). Under Emperor Menelik II, Ethiopia expanded southward, incorporating Somali-inhabited territories like the Ogaden—a move that sowed the seeds for future tensions.
Somalia was divided among European powers:
- British Somaliland (north)
- Italian Somaliland (south)
- French Somaliland (Djibouti)
- The Ogaden region remained under Ethiopian control
This fragmentation left Somalis divided across borders, fueling irredentist dreams of a "Greater Somalia."
The mid-20th century saw Ethiopia and Somalia become pawns in the Cold War.
After independence in 1960, Somalia (uniting British and Italian Somaliland) sought to reclaim the Ogaden. In the 1970s, President Siad Barre aligned with the USSR, receiving military aid to pursue this goal.
The 1974 Ethiopian Revolution ousted Emperor Haile Selassie, bringing a Marxist regime under Mengistu Haile Mariam. In a stunning shift, the USSR switched allegiance to Ethiopia, leaving Somalia stranded. The 1977–78 Ogaden War saw Ethiopia, backed by Soviet and Cuban forces, repel Somali troops—a devastating loss for Barre’s regime.
The fall of the USSR left both nations struggling with internal collapse.
Barre’s regime fell in 1991, plunging Somalia into civil war. The emergence of warlords, piracy, and later Al-Shabaab turned the country into a byword for state failure.
Ethiopia, under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), maintained relative stability but faced ethnic tensions. Its 2006 invasion of Somalia to oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) further strained relations.
Today, Ethiopia-Somalia relations are shaped by three key issues:
While Ethiopia’s Somali Region (Ogaden) enjoys nominal autonomy, sporadic insurgencies persist. The 2018 election of Abiy Ahmed raised hopes for reconciliation, but his focus on Tigray and Amhara conflicts has sidelined Somali grievances.
The UAE-Saudi vs. Qatar-Turkey proxy war has split the Horn:
- Ethiopia and Somalia initially leaned toward the UAE-Saudi bloc.
- Turkey’s growing influence in Somalia (via military training and infrastructure) complicates Ethiopia’s stance.
The UAE’s investment in Somaliland’s Berbera port (a breakaway region unrecognized by Somalia) has angered Mogadishu. Ethiopia’s deal to use the port risks further alienating Somalia’s federal government.
The militant group remains a shared threat but also a source of tension:
- Ethiopia maintains troops in Somalia under AMISOM (now ATMIS).
- Somalia accuses Ethiopia of overreach, while Ethiopia criticizes Mogadishu’s weak governance.
Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has strained its ties with Egypt—a traditional ally of Somalia. Cairo’s courtship of Mogadishu adds another layer to the Ethiopia-Somalia rivalry.
Somalia’s fragile federal model clashes with Ethiopia’s own ethnic federalism under strain. Both nations face existential questions:
- Can Somalia rein in its regions (Jubaland, Puntland) without alienating them?
- Will Ethiopia’s internal conflicts spill over into Somali-inhabited areas?
The answers will determine whether the Horn of Africa moves toward cooperation or renewed conflict.